The Mizani Africa survey, released on April 30, shows that ODM’s once-unified dominance in the region has weakened sharply following a growing split between rival factions within the party.
For years, ODM has maintained overwhelming influence in Kisumu under the long-standing leadership of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, consistently commanding large voter support and controlling most elective seats in the county.
However, the latest findings indicate that internal disagreements have fractured that support base into two main blocs. The faction aligned with Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, known as the Linda Mwananchi wing, currently leads with 36.2% support.
In contrast, the group associated with Siaya Senator Oburu Oginga, referred to as Linda Ground, has secured 19.1%.
While the combined support of the two factions still gives ODM a numerical majority at 55.3%, analysts warn that the fragmentation represents a serious weakening of the party’s traditional unity and political control in the region.
The poll further highlights a notable rise in support for the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA), led by President William Ruto.
While the combined support of the two factions still gives ODM a numerical majority at 55.3%, analysts warn that the fragmentation represents a serious weakening of the party’s traditional unity and political control in the region.
The poll further highlights a notable rise in support for the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA), led by President William Ruto.
UDA’s backing in Kisumu has reportedly grown from 11.7% to 24.5%, suggesting that the party is beginning to make inroads into an area long considered politically hostile.
According to political observers, the shift is not merely a reflection of opposition gains but a consequence of ODM’s internal struggles, which have created openings for rival parties to expand their influence.
The report notes that the situation in Kisumu is evolving from a single-party dominance model to a more competitive political environment shaped by factional rivalries and voter realignment.
At the same time, local leaders have raised concerns about attempts to introduce zoning politics within parties.
According to political observers, the shift is not merely a reflection of opposition gains but a consequence of ODM’s internal struggles, which have created openings for rival parties to expand their influence.
The report notes that the situation in Kisumu is evolving from a single-party dominance model to a more competitive political environment shaped by factional rivalries and voter realignment.
At the same time, local leaders have raised concerns about attempts to introduce zoning politics within parties.
Kisumu Governor Anyang’ Nyong’o has previously warned that restricting political competition through zoning could undermine democratic principles and limit voter choice.
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