The survey indicates that approval of the cooperation between President William Ruto and allies of the late former Prime Minister Raila Odinga has nearly doubled, rising from 22 per cent in May to 44 per cent by November.
The results suggest a notable shift in public attitudes toward an arrangement that was initially met with deep skepticism and political tension.
At the same time, resistance to the broad-based government has weakened. Opposition, which peaked at 64 per cent in August, fell to 48 per cent in the most recent poll.
At the same time, resistance to the broad-based government has weakened. Opposition, which peaked at 64 per cent in August, fell to 48 per cent in the most recent poll.
This marks the lowest level of disapproval recorded across the three survey periods tracked by TIFA this year, pointing to a gradual softening of public resistance.
According to analysts cited in the report, early opposition was strongly influenced by memories of violent street protests and the aggressive security response witnessed in June and July.
According to analysts cited in the report, early opposition was strongly influenced by memories of violent street protests and the aggressive security response witnessed in June and July.
Those events heightened fear and uncertainty among the public, shaping negative perceptions of political cooperation between long-standing rivals.
However, as political temperatures cooled and the structure of the broad-based government became clearer, many Kenyans began reassessing their views.
However, as political temperatures cooled and the structure of the broad-based government became clearer, many Kenyans began reassessing their views.
TIFA researchers note that the arrangement is increasingly seen as a stabilising force that could help reduce prolonged political confrontation and restore a sense of national calm.
The nationwide survey covered nine regions: Central Rift, Coast, Lower Eastern, Mt Kenya, Nairobi, Northern, Nyanza, South Rift, and Western Kenya.
The nationwide survey covered nine regions: Central Rift, Coast, Lower Eastern, Mt Kenya, Nairobi, Northern, Nyanza, South Rift, and Western Kenya.
Data was collected through face-to-face, household-based interviews conducted primarily in Kiswahili and English to ensure broad accessibility and accurate representation of grassroots opinion.
A total of 2,053 respondents were interviewed, giving the findings a margin of error of plus or minus 2.16 per cent.
A total of 2,053 respondents were interviewed, giving the findings a margin of error of plus or minus 2.16 per cent.
TIFA says the methodology and sample size provide a strong degree of statistical reliability and reflect national sentiment with reasonable accuracy.
The timing of the survey is also significant. Interviews were conducted weeks before Raila Odinga’s death on October 15 while he was receiving medical treatment abroad.
The timing of the survey is also significant. Interviews were conducted weeks before Raila Odinga’s death on October 15 while he was receiving medical treatment abroad.
Researchers emphasised that the rising approval of the broad-based government predates his passing, indicating that the trend reflects evolving public attitudes rather than a sympathy-driven response.
TIFA’s analysis suggests that as implementation of the arrangement progressed, Kenyans gained a clearer understanding of its purpose and potential benefits.
TIFA’s analysis suggests that as implementation of the arrangement progressed, Kenyans gained a clearer understanding of its purpose and potential benefits.
This appears to have eased concerns that the framework would weaken democratic checks and balances or sideline opposition voices.
Despite the gains in approval, the findings show that the country remains divided. Nearly half of respondents continue to express reservations about the broad-based government.
Despite the gains in approval, the findings show that the country remains divided. Nearly half of respondents continue to express reservations about the broad-based government.
Social Plugin